Carpinteria, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

937
FXUS66 KLOX 061851
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1151 AM PDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...06/850 AM.

Night through morning low clouds and fog will continue for the
next several days over the coast and valleys with slow, if any,
clearing at the coast. Cooler than normal temperatures are
expected today, then a warming trend will develop for the weekend
and through next week, especially away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...06/902 AM.

***UPDATE***

No changes from previous forecasts. Marine layer depth remains at
3000 feet across the LA Basin and 2000 feet along the Central
Coast. An upper low over the Bay Area is expected to be nudged a
few hundred miles over the Pacific which will allow heights and
thicknesses to rise over the weekend, leading to a decreasing
marine layer depth and warmer temperatures, especially inland. May
see a little warming across the desert as early as today but more
so over the weekend and including the coastal valleys. No
impactful weather expected except possibly some dense fog along
the Central Coast and some of the LA/Ventura valleys and some
breezy afternoon/evening winds across the deserts and southwest
Santa Barbara County.

***From Previous Discussion***

The increased hgts will smoosh the marine layer down and this
should keep many vly areas cloud free Sunday morning. Offshore
trends from the north will allow for earlier clearing for many
areas. The less robust marine layer will trigger a spike in temps
for the vlys where max temps will climb 3 to 6 degrees the coasts
will only see 1 or 2 degrees of warming save for the SBA south
coast where better offshore flow will warm that area 5 to 7
degrees. Most areas except for the beaches and the Central Coast
will warm to above normal.

The strong onshore flow will bring typical breezy afternoon
conditions to the western Antelope Vly and foothills as well as an
enhanced sea breeze to the coastal areas.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...06/249 AM.

Hgts slowly climb both Mon and Tue and are forecast to reach 591
dam by Tuesday. While the onshore flow in the afternoon will
remain fairly strong it will be weaker in the morning. Hgts this
high should keep most of the low clouds out of the vlys. Max temps
warm another 1 to 2 degrees on Monday and then remain about the
same on Tuesday. Max temps across the csts will be in the 70s with
80s throughout the vlys. The Antelope Vly will see max temps a
few degrees either side of 100.

The ridge weakens Wed and Thu and the onshore flow increases.
Looks for a return of the low clouds to the vlys. Max temps will 1
to 3 degrees on Wed and an additional 2 to 4 degrees on Thu. This
cooling will bring most of the csts and vlys back down to below
normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...06/1850Z.

At 18Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2500 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 3900 feet with a temperature of 21 C.

High confidence in VFR TAFs for KPMD and KWJF.

Moderate confidence in all remaining TAFs with timing of flight
category changes possibly off by 2 hours and 1 flight category at
times. Except for KPRB, which has a 20-30 percent chance of
IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys between 10-16Z. There is a 10-20 percent
chance that VFR conds prevail at KVNY and KBUR.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. No significant east wind
component expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. There is a 10 percent chance
that VFR conds prevail.

&&

.MARINE...06/830 AM.

No update needed. Dense fog may become more common this weekend,
especially north of Point Conception and especially during the
evening to morning hours.

...Previous discussion...

Typical northwest to west winds are expected this weekend,
especially across the waters south of Point Conception. There is a
30% chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds across western
portions of the Santa Barbara Channel this afternoon and evening.

There is increasing chances for SCA winds across the waters
around Pt. Conception, Northern Channel islands, and down to San
Nicolas Saturday (40%) into Sunday (60%). Short period choppy seas
are likely nearshore.

Next week will be characterized by increasing chances and coverage
for SCA winds across the outer waters, and seas building towards
SCA levels mid-week and beyond. Confidence is low (seas) to
moderate (winds).

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Black/Lund/RM
SYNOPSIS...MW/Smith

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox